Working Papers

Lazuka, V., 2021. Heterogeneous returns to medical innovations. Lund Papers in Economic History, 2021. Manuscript. Appendices.

Abstract: This paper sets up a quasi-experiment to estimate both total and heterogeneous impacts of medical innovations on the individual’s economic outcomes for a comprehensive set of around 90 health conditions. The rich administrative panel data for Sweden covering more than 1 million individuals combined with disease-specific data on new molecular entities and patents granted in healthcare have allowed me to emulate such an experiment. I find that an increase in medical innovations by one standard deviation raises disposable family income by 14.8% (95% CI: 14.4%; 15.1%). Regarding the sources of income response, medical innovations strongly influence not only own disposable and labour income and sickness and unemployment payments but also a spouse’s income. The effects of medical innovations are especially strong for cancer and circulatory diseases, are moderate for mental and nervous, infectious and respiratory diseases, and are absent or appear as losses for other health shocks. Results also suggest decreasing returns – yet far from reaching zeros – rather than constant returns to scale.

Lazuka, V. and Jensen, P. 2021. Multigenerational effects of smallpox vaccination. Work in Progress.

Abstract: We explore the multigenerational effects of smallpox vaccination on mortality over two centuries. Unique individual level data of high quality from Sweden covering 1760 to 1960 allow us to investigate whether and how vaccination affected the first generation of vaccinated and whether these effects persisted to the second and third generation. We apply several methods of causal inference, such as the instrumental-variables and sibling fixed-effects methods, to high-quality longitudinal individual-level data for 49 parishes and find similar effects across methods. Our results show that smallpox vaccination improved survival of the first generation by 10.5 years, and that these effects, with a reduced magnitude, persisted to the second and third generation.

Lazuka, V., Bengtsson, P., and Svensson, P. 2021. How much did enclosures matter in Sweden? New ways to measure their impact on productionWorking paper.

Abstract: The answer to how much enclosures increased production varies by context and whether direct measures, such as output or income, or indirect measures, such as farm values and rents, are used. It also varies whether the period before and after enclosures are compared, or enclosed and non-enclosed villages at a certain point in time. This paper estimates the effects of two enclosures in southern Sweden, starting in 1803 and in 1827 respectively, making use of both the information on production before and after the enclosures and compares enclosed and non-enclosed villages. It controls for farm size, natural conditions, land ownership, and other factors that might influence the production using direct measures of annual production for 1,180 farms from 1784 to 1861. Applying a difference-in-differences method, we find that during the first decade after enclosure, the grain production increased annually 1.2 percent faster than it would otherwise have done, 2.4 percent faster during the second decade. Using an event-study method, which allows for flexible modelling of pre- and post-enclosure trends, production after the enclosures increased even faster already during the first decade, annually by 3.1 percent. Apparently, the enclosures fulfilled their purpose of increasing production.